Home Reports Tripoli … Open political and army clash scenarios

Tripoli … Open political and army clash scenarios



A state of chaos dominates the scene inside Libya after the government led by Khalifa Al-Ghuwail and members of the General National Congress (GNC) controlled official headquarters inside the capital Tripoli. They announced their refusal to recognize the Presidential Council (PC) of the Government of National Accord (GNA) headed by Fayez Al-Sarraj, which forced the PC to cast threats in response, amid fears of renewed armed confrontations inside the capital.

Such developments came days before the ninth ministerial meeting for Libya neighbor countries held in Niger, Wednesday, to discuss the Libyan crisis, fighting terrorism and other common issues.

The PC, according to a report by Al-Araby Al-Jadid website, and translated here by LIBYAPROSPECT, despite supported by the United Nations, failed to unite Libyan factions. Then Al-Ghuwail came to announce his return to performing his official tasks, from the former GNC headquarters, now occupied by the State Council emanated from the Political Agreement (PA). Al-Ghuwail urged all state institutions to work with him as “the legitimate government.”

Remarkably, Al-Ghuwail’s statement called Tobruk government headed by Abdulla Al-Thinni to form a national unity government with the GNC members within a Libyan –Libyan dialogue launched one year ago by the GNC and the House of Representatives (HoR), that managed to organize a meeting between the head of the HoR, Ageela Saleh, and the GNC chairman, Nuri Abusahmain. Al-Ghuwail’s call was accepted by Saleh who announced his willingness to form committees to discuss the matter.

Such developments, accompanying the current military chaos, raise different vogue scenarios regarding the Libyan situation in the coming period. Firstly; events might lead to armed confrontations if Al-Ghuwail’s government insisted on its position regarding the PC. Some reports said that the military convoys affiliated to Al-Ghuwail and the GNC arrived at military locations south and east of the capital, besides a possible coup by some militias against the PC who failed to solve the crisis.

If military confrontations occurred, the report said that would allow forces led by General Khalifa Haftar, stationed in Wersheffana, to exploit the current abyss, especially that Haftar’s political allies in the east accepted Al-Ghuwail initiative to form a unity government. Which means the capital is about to fall, with most of the forces allied with the PC occupied in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) group inside the city of Sirte.

The second scenario, according to the report; Al-Ghuwail’s attempt might fail, with international community condemnation, especially that its call for the state official institutional wasn’t accepted. The Central Bank of Libya (CBL) quickly denied any reports about its willingness to work with Al-Ghuwail’s government. Not to mention that Al-Ghuwail’s inability to pay off his militias was the main reason Tripoli militias announced affiliation to the PC, said the report.

And third, the report expected more ambiguity and confusion in the situation, which shows the inability of the PC to resolve political and security problems. Thus, forcing the international community to communicate with those who oppose Shkirat agreement from the GNC in Tripoli and the HoR in Tobruk to find the new political formula.