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Scenario of GNA emergence in Tripoli

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By: Omar Elkeddi*

The Government of National Accord (GNA) is getting ready for

Omar Elkeddi
Omar Elkeddi

entering the capital Tripoli after gaining broad international support, but divisions turned severer among Libyan rivals. The Interim Government of the House of Representatives (HoR) refused to hand over the power to the GNA, its Prime Minister, Abdullah Al-Thinni, threatened to punish whoever co-operates with the GNA.

On the other side, the PM of the National Rescue Government of Tripoli, Khalifa Al-Gowel, threatened to arrest the GNA Prime Minister Fayez Al-Sarraj and his cabinet if entered Tripoli.

Instead of 2 governments, Libya now has 3. The Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) resorted to Oman to resolve disagreement points, the country that Gaddafi called donkeys’ yard.

The GNA needs a huge military and security forces to secure it and apply its decisions on the ground. It will count on the Deterrent Force of Abdul-Raouf Kara and some militias that support the political agreement like Al-Halbos and Almahjoub, in addition to militias near to Tripoli.

Mostly, the GNA headquarters will be in a closed and easy-to-secure position like Mitiga base or Al-Nakheel city in Janzour. Militias will be immediately reformed and incorporated and former military men will be recalled to form a professional army and security forces that will be trained by the Italian, British, French and German.

Tripoli might also observe armed clashes between pro and anti-GNA forces like the Islamic Fighter group and some of Misrata battalions that support the National Rescue Government, then the NATO or some of its countries will intervene to crash these militias from air.

If the GNA was able to withdraw all heavy and medium arms from Tripoli, the measures will be generalized across the west and opponents of the GNA will recalculate their stances when become a minority while Al-Gowel, his cabinet, Abu sahmain and Abdulhakim Belhaj will resort to Turkey.

Zintan will also reconsider its opposing stance of the GNA and ask its representative to join the government, the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) then will freeze accounts of those who reject the GNA across Libya in addition to international sanctions that will include Al-Thinni this time.

The Interim Government will suffer from a severe financial crisis if the CBL and the National Oil Company boycott it. The CBL will only deal with the local councils. The financial crisis will have its effect on the army led by the retired General, Khalifa Haftar, especially if monetary and military support from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) stopped upon international pressure.

The commander of the Oil Installments Guards, Ibrahim Jadhran, will then play an important role; he probably will support the GNA and refuse to bow to Haftar, especially if he agreed with Misrata battalions to free Sirte form the Islamic State group (IS) with international support.

It is highly unlikely Haftar will resume his job in the national army from Tripoli as its general leader, he will stay in his fortress in Al-Marj city. The GNA then will have to activate the 8th article of the Political Agreement, after consultation with the talks’ committee, to move powers of high civil, security and military posts to itself.

A new chief of staff and other high officials will be appointed. Reconciliation will take some time to reunite the country away from controversial personalities. Libyans will easily accept reconciliation with Gaddafi supporters, after they experienced other more extremist streams.

Judiciary will resolve unresolved matters since Gaddafi era till now. Officials of former regime of Gaddafi, who weren’t proved to be involved in rape, murder or corruption will be freed.

This scenario isn’t new in the Libyan history; every time the state collapses, it puts itself back together from Tripoli to gain control over the nation. The state has never started from anywhere else then moved to Tripoli; the biggest evidence is that the Interim Government and the House of Representatives (HoR); they stayed in the east and weren’t able to control the west or south, by time it turned into a prisoner in the hands of tribal and regionals.

The country will go through a severe financial crisis before it restores pre 2011 oil export standards. The country will gradually exit its crisis if the Security Council lifts embargo on Libyan funds abroad, but this needs active diplomatic channels with Russia and China, which hinder lifting embargo imposed by the Security Council, embargo on arming the Libyan army will be lifted too, which will help it to control the Libyan lands, which means that the country will continue to be divided for some time till the GNA is able to hold new legislative elections, to enable the new HoR to work from Benghazi, and then the CBL and the oil company will move to Benghazi as well.

*A Libyan Writer

Translated By LIBYAPROSPECT: Source