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Libya is coming hardly out of bottle-neck

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By: Omar Elkeddi*

The bloc of 92 in the House of Representatives (HoR) didn’t have

Omar Elkeddi
Omar Elkeddi

other option than abolishing the 8th article of the political agreement in exchange for the HoR’s acceptance to the agreement. It knew the agreement couldn’t be amended; either be accepted or refused as a whole. The disagreement around the 8th article put Libya in a bottle neck. Like the political isolation law was tailored to Mahmoud Jibril, the 8th article was tailored to Khalifa Haftar who is supported and refused strongly by different groups. There is no consensual solution in the horizon; Haftar doesn’t seem to uphold the interest of the nation and retreat with dignity out of the scene, clinging to Haftar means collapse of political agreement which will lead to dividing Libya.

Zintan and Gherian and others in the west may sacrifice Haftar but Cyrenaica wouldn’t. Cyrenaica seems to suffer from leadership crisis after Qaddafi marginalized its tribal and civilian leaders for more than 40 years. Haftar then came so that Al-Saady and Al-Morabteen tribes can line behind him especially in red Cyrenaica, while white Cyrenaica and Al-Hodhor refused him. This confirms that in case Cyrenaica is divided, it won’t survive its consequences; the fight is coming between Haftar and Al-jdran, Al-Hodhor and Beduins will be its fuel in Benghazi and Ajdabiya.

The temporary solution is designating Haftar for defense ministry in the Government of National Accord, GNA.

If Cyrenaica broke down, it will be under British power while Tripoli will be under Italian power and French people will come back in Fezzan. Bevin-Sforza plan for dividing Libya will be brought back to life after Libyans managed to bury it in the latest forties of the last century. It is sad even for the fathers who fought for Libya’s independence and unity. Despite the division of the General National Congress, GNC, to several blocks that most of it support the agreement, provided not touching the 8th article, a bloc led by Abusahmain and other fighter group refuses the agreement. It is a group of no effect if a consensus is reached between the supportive blocs of the agreement and Haftar. It seems that there is no way out of holding a conference like Loya Jirga Afghani conference, in which all representatives of Libyan tribes gather with chief and members of the presidency council, chief of the HoR, supportive blocks of the agreement in the GNC, army leadership and major officers.

Through this conference, international supported consensus can be reached, otherwise, Libya will stay for long in the bottle-neck like Bernardino Leon predicted.

The positive thing in the past week was the meeting called for by the military council of Misrata that joined most battalions of rebels in the city. They decided to unite and support the political agreement provided that removing controversial characters, implying to Haftar. But controversial characters may include Abdulrahman Al-Swehly, Salah Badi, Ibrahim Al-Jadhran and Alsadeq Al-Gheriany. Uniting Misrata battalions means the end of the GNC and Libya Dawn and the start of fighting terrorism that crawls towards Misrata.

Libya Dawn is over, when will Operation Dignity that turned into “doom” end? Libya dawn was launched from heterogeneous alliance led by aimless leaders, it is hailed by Mufti and hardliners of the GNC while operation dignity was launched by one leader that a number of army officers rounded, and some had high posts back in the time of Qaddafi. This operation mayn’t be shattered easily so that the army is rebuilt on professional grounds especially that neighboring countries severely affect the Libyan scene. Al-Sarraj’s visit to Haftar wasn’t by his will but after pressures of a neighboring country, while Algeria holds the key for some hardliners in Libya especially the fighter Islamic group. Ennahda Tunisian movement, on the other hand, affects the Muslim brotherhood, in addition to the Emirati and Qatari effect that will keep Libya inside the bottle-neck for long time, unless Libyans bet on their interests and move away the controversial characters, like a wolf cuts one of his legs to flee the ambush. The interim solution may be appointing Haftar to the defense ministry in the GNA so that this controversial character can go out of the political and military scene by the end of the government.

*A Libyan Writer

Translated By LIBYAPROSPECT: Source