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Possibilities in Libya

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The point of view of major powers and inner conflicts

By: Ismail Rashad*

Ismail Rashad
Ismail Rashad

Remarks of Americans, Italians and French politicians and military men, all match to confirm that their priorities in Libya are limited to stopping the Islamic State group (IS) from controlling Libya and not to expand to north Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and west African countries in addition to stemming illegal migration influx from Libya to Europe that might carry the IS sleeper agents.

The inner Libyan scene is divided over overalls that the Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) failed to agree upon, it ended up freezing suspending many members, justifying it with the prevail of regional attitudes inside the CDA. It is probable that suspensions will be explained through regional-driven reasons for not accepting demands of other regions.

The division appears clearly in many occasions; the political conflict since the elections of the General National Congress (GNC), in 2012, due to refusal of some political powers, regionalism of the elections, the conflict was also broadened because of resolution 7 of the GNC that allowed the attack on Bani waleed city, conflicts also appeared in discussions and passing the political isolation law that reflected the size of conflicts inside the GNC, the sit ins, anti-extension movements, outputs of February committee, kidnapping of officials, and the elections of the committee of 60 and the House of Representatives (HoR).

The armed conflict was prior, companion to, and output of the political conflict; south and border areas were the scene for racial, political and regional conflicts for money and power. Armed political, ideological, and regional conflicts appeared in Benghazi, in addition to political and regional conflicts in Tripoli, it was all linked to power, control and money.

In February 2014, features of political military conflict started to intercept in Haftar’s announcement of his refusal of the so called extension and the support of military, political, and social leaders for this announcement without appearing in any outputs but the control of some specific battalions on Tripoli and the outbreak of Dignity Operation that was followed by Libya Dawn operation that caused political, legislative and governmental division that negatively affected financial and economic situations to the extent of expected complete political shrink, run out of reserves which hinders government’s ability to provide the simplest services because of stoppage of governmental spending.

One of the most important outputs of political division and the in-fight is the waves of demographic moves between areas of regional and political dispute; something like a wide displacement is going on for anyone who is known to support Libya Dawn or Dignity Operation.

Regional powers surrounding Libya support the rivals according to their own interests and their historic and social relations with Libya and its competitors over influence in North Africa and Africa as a whole.

The most important factor that all major powers agree on while not being a priority to the mosaic of division and Libyan fight is the Islamic State group (IS) that started to expand its control over Libya, exploiting the conflict and in-fighting between Libyan rivals.

The IS is the only able power to expand its control over Libya as it owns enough money resources to expand and it also gathers excise from local communities it control while also controlling oil and human smuggling in Libya for people who long trips became their only option for life.

Bidding of rivals in Libya will more enable the group, which will turn Libya into a widening scene for broad military operations.

Amongst this local and foreign hustle, and the lack of local majority about protecting the unity of geographic policy of the Libyan state that takes back control over its resources; oil and taxes which will help it later in rebuilding the social unity connected to national vision that achieves racial, regional and political contradicting demands of communities. It is expected that the centers of political and military conflict can’t realize the results of continuing bidding and competitions in the point scoring game like when the HoR refused to endorse the Government of National Accord (GNA) and Al-Sarraj visited Haftar.

All these successive biddings by the actors of the armed and political conflict, in any level of the conflict, will widen the gap before the ability of reaching local majority about the priorities of the Libyan state and the society and the ability to achieve interest intersection with the western and regional powers, in a way that guarantees protecting the political geography and national resources of Libya.

It remains to remind of the economies of political and regional wars, and conflicts and resulting power centers that most pro-fighting through watching or chanting realize. Wars, conflicts and divisions destroy infrastructure of transparency and accountability.

Priority of conflicts become to its continuity, so that political and financial power centers can continue existing as wars have economy built on weapons, ammunition and fighters and all relating logistic services inside and outside the state. Conflicts also rise for controlling financial institutions for war’s continuity.

With continuity of wars and conflicts, power centers are created who undercover in ethics to guarantee the continuity of fellowship of demographic Libyan sectors which guarantees the existence of fighters to be of the political game cards, while chants to protect martyrs’ blood are repeated on the outskirts of the civil war.

Economy and power of civil war form the reasons for refusing trials for peace and negotiations to end the wars and disputes, as it means stopping economies of war and divisions and the resulting power centers.

*A Libyan Journalist and Writer

Translated By LIBYAPROSPECT: Source