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Back to square one

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In his article on Arabi21 website, that LIBYAPROSPECT has translated here , Senussi Bsaikri commented on the Islamic

Senussi Bsaikri
Senussi Bsaikri

State group (IS) latest crime against personnel of borders guards.

A new cruel crime claimed by the IS killed 3 of the border guards in a heinous way, while nonsense continues on the political course. How it can’t be called nonsense while it is opening the road ahead of these terrorist actions, Bsaikri stated.

Bsaikri said that connecting the repetitive tragedies of killing and explosions isn’t mentioned for intimidation and posing pressure but as a realistic between reasons and results. Outlawed groups and criminal actions take place only in political vacuum and rivalry. The IS has only found its space in the shadows of divisions amongst February revolution supporters. Situation is to be more dangerous if infighting continuous.

He elaborated that the the House of Representatives (HoR) refused the Government of National Accord (GNA). Many Libyans understand the reason, despite objecting to it. The HoR found justification for its refusal in the objections of nearly 100 activists. But the HoR’s decision to abolish article 8 of the Political Agreement caused wide controversy and might take the process few steps back, nearly to square one.

The HoR refusal to the 8th article was received by joy of many opponents of the Skhirat deal, the Presidency Council (PC) and the refused GNA. Joy was motivated by the stumbled outputs of the Political Agreement, but those don’t understand that any agreement that tightens the gap and unifies lines is better than division, no matter objections to the agreement.

The writer states that, what concerns me is that obstinacy has deeper explanation that refusal of some articles of agreement, it is a true proof that wide spectrum of politicians refuse consensus, politicians inside the HoR and the General National Congress (GNC). I won’t discuss reasons of refusal. What is dangerous is that most Libyans think refusal is motivated by regional, partisan and personal reasons rather than public interest. You only need to browse opinions in social media websites or speak to people in the streets to have an idea of the public opinion in the matter.

Signs of complications related to decision of the HoR include the new reactions inside Tripoli front that redrew map and location of battalions and armed groups inside the capital after the agreement, may be temporarily. After well-established armed groups in Tripoli were said to be supporting Skhirat deal, the negative performance of the Presidency Council then the weak government and the HoR refusal to it resulted in what can be named fear over privileges and feeling amongst important spectrum of Tripoli armed groups that the alternative isn’t what is proposed, reactions appeared in the statement of Tripoli rebels.

He adds that, observer should be close to the political and security scene in Tripoli to know what “Tripoli rebels” mean and its effect on the future of the Presidency Council and the GNA. Least can be said is that new events in Tripoli may stumble the move of the PC and GNA to the capital, which mean the continuity of conflict and taking division a step further to be legitimize-able.

The scene in the east isn’t firmer than in Tripoli, it may be worse as Dignity Operation disintegrates more and more. Disintegration is increasing, especially after remarks of the spokesperson, Mohamed Al-Hejazi, and meetings between tribes of Al-Dresa and Al-Baraghtha that announced explicit an implicit support for Al-Hejazi, by Al-Dresa and Al-Baraghtha respectively.

The reaction of Haftar in his latest speech may confirm that the scenes in Benghazi and the east may escalate and witness an unannounced clash that may rise on top in the next stage.

The summary, as Bsaikri says, is that political and security scenes go towards more divisions and clashes, unless voices of silent wise rise over demolishers who seek disconnections and chaos. The more complete and mature the suggestion of the wise was the more it is acceptable and able to abort projects of people of regional, partisan and personal interests.