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Skhirat repercussions and Accord Forum Initiative

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By: Senussi Bsaikri*

It has been three weeks since the singing of Skhirat agreement, defections continue, controversy still happens about outcomes of

Senussi Bsaikri
Senussi Bsaikri

the agreement and what substitutes we have.

Negotiations train, started in Tunisia with the declaration of principles agreement, signed by members of the Hose of Representatives and the General National Congress and supported by the meeting between the heads of the two legislative bodies, seems heading in search for another near station to stop and wait after the position announced by Ageela Saleh, the head of the HoR. In the opposite, meetings in Tunisia never stopped in preparation for forming the unity government, which is supposed to be in Tripoli within five weeks.

The significant evolution during the last two days is the third national consensus meeting held in Tripoli, proceeded by similar meetings in Misrata and another in Gherian during the last two months. The meeting, that was held on the basis of reconciliation, reunion and support for the main dialogue course, seemed to have taken another political detour, according to a statement issued by the participants, as the HoR and the GNC demanded to participate in the consensus encounter to nominate 21 candidates (seven from each party, the HoR, the GNC, and the consensus meeting) assigned to choose replacement government away from Al-Sarraj’s unity government which is refused by both parties.

So, with such formula, the meeting aimed to find another umbrella to support the Libyan dialogue away from Shkirat, and because the current disputes need a common ground for accord, some see the consensus meeting as a positive step. But there is one challenge, that the meeting is unrepresentative for wide sectors of Libyans, and it might turn to a political body with biased political views, which would complicate matters much further.

What confirms such concerns is that the meeting approach is “in case the HoR and the GNC didn’t respond to the forum’s initiative by nominating seven members from each body, the forum would name members of its own”. Such detour would be positive on one condition; if the forum succeed in mobilizing representatives from all Libyan sects, East, West and South to support its efforts.

The international community, represented in the United Nations envoy, doesn’t care that much about repercussions of signing the political agreement in Shkirat, and its efforts are focused on convincing opponents whether to sign the agreement or approve its outcomes, spearheaded by Al-Sarraj’s government, or stay neutral. That was the core of the latest meetings with heads of the HoR and the GNC. Some points were suggested by Martin Kobler, viewed by some as positive, are just motivating guarantees without dealing with the core of the political accord. And with indicators on the preponderance of balance in favor of al-Sarraj’s government, we can say that the challenge is in Tripoli which is supposed to host the new government.

Of Course, the results of the meeting with the head of the GNC won’t be satisfactory for Kobler, as Abusahmain is not supposed to approve or submit easily, specially not after the consensus forum that helps to relief pressure, and disperses efforts by the UN envoy who is looking for “confusion” points to contain.

The conclusion is that, latest defections pressure and confirm that the capital is not ready yet to be such comfortable place for the government, which is a challenge should be kept in consideration. Logic requires dealing with rebound waves with wise and patience, even if such waves are weak and limited and not yet a threat to the government, Subsequently, consensus need talks to expand, ignoring that fact would increase tensions and disputes inside the capital to a level that will impede the government work, and might become a threat to the relative instability inside the city.

*A Libyan Writer

Translated By LIBYAPROSPECT: Source