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Kobler ..The agreement and the support bets

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By: Suliman Elbayoudi*

The first official statement of the United Nations’ special envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, asserted his work to continue the document

Suliman Elbayoudi
Suliman Elbayoudi

that his predecessor produced. This raises an important question: does the UN, as an organization, want to protect its credibility on the expenses of the Libyan state? Can the supporters be gathered for the agreement? Did regional reactions in Libyan push major states to stop this dangerous wave? Does Kobler know the risks of getting into the agreement without new crowd?

All mentioned is possible, but there is a truth that can’t be let out; that reactions of regional countries in Libya are stronger and more organized on the ideological level, and getting in the agreement without greater consensus will make the Islamic State (IS) the surprise for the year 2016 in Libya.

The agreement will cause urgent alliances. According to resolutions of Security Council, Al-Qaeda, Ansar Al-sharia and the Islamic state will be the enemies of the agreement and all resulting bodies. It worth mentioning that the bloody conflict has changed Libya demographically, political and social structures are no more built on the same basis, which risks the expected results of the agreement.

The content of the political Libyan-made agreement document is the core, thus it is possible to found a base for it, especially if Kobler finds mechanisms to make the agreement fit for all with no exceptions for Libyans, especially who suffered in previous conflicts.

Through his advisors, Kobler must know that many of surrounding people are smudged with Libyan blood before taking part in talks, entitling Libya with elimination and betrayal.

It was clear in backstage of the political process that conflict is built on ideological, tribal and regional relations bases. This brings an important question; did the rivals think about building a new Libya with the concept of Libyan identity?

To a great extent, we can answer the question by (NO). we can say that a leap took place on the level of joint language calling for the national project; it is like a new star whose supporters will increase.

This star and its momentum is what Kobler must use benefitting from Roma international meeting on 13 December, and the support to the Government of National Accord (GNA).

Officials of the government will have to think of their interactions with the inside and outside. The momentum won’t affect the reality unless Kobler moves towards inside.

To be continued..

*A Libyan Writer

Translated By LIBYAPROSPECT: Source