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Three possible scenarios, is there a fourth?


By: Abdulrazag El-Aradi*

I wrote a research published at Al-Jazeera institute for studies, and mentioned three possible scenarios, but obviously we had fourth one.

Abdulrazag Elaradi
Abdulrazag Elaradi

I don’t know what it is. The three scenarios are:

First: The return of General National Congress (GNC) means modifying the original draft, when or before discussing and ratifying the annexes, and therefore reaching final agreement and forming government of national accord that restores hope for the possibility of return to building and facing inner and external challenges.

Second: The return of the GNC might be based on certain strategy to prolong the negotiations right up to the end of House of Representatives (HoR) mandate on 21 October 2015. But this strategy, beside its contradiction to announced position of supreme court, is very weak and could be reversed by the HoR with proactive amend to the Constitutional Declaration, with exploitation of international support, or at the behest of regional or international parties, which at the end would prolong the crisis and force retired general Khalif Haftar to form Military council and declares himself its leader, disrupting the work of constitutional declaration, which means the escalation of war to expand to new fronts and methods.

Third: In case the GNC refused to return to the negotiating table, or refused to sign the agreement, it is possibly that the international community would grant the HoR ultimate legitimacy to control wealth and publically arming its army.

The international community would decide moving forward to final signing without the GNC, and form government supported by the international community and the rest of parties, boycotting members could join the HoR, abolish all amendments concerning state council in the draft, then declare Tripoli rebel city and choose different one as temporary capital.

This could mean the surge of violence and slide over into the quagmire of civil war and the failure of the state altogether, we might see division.

*A Libyan politician and writer