LIBYAPROSPECT – Editorial
Libyan dialogue reaches a critical phase, different parties have to agree and sign on single option during the coming hours, and accordingly elect the head of government of national accord and his two deputies.
During last few days, House Of Representatives (HoR) in Tobroq modified the constitutional declaration and extended its mandate another six months starting from its last day, 20th of October.
From another side, some parties and HoR accuse the General National Congress (GNC) of stalling in proposing names of candidates for the government, delegates and UN mission still waiting for candidates of GNC in order to complete the first phase of the dialogue.
LIBYAPROSPECT surveyed an elite group of political activists and intellectuals, and asked some questions.
Questions asked by Libya Prospect are: What are your expectations for the dialogue and its latest developments? And what do you think of HoR’s decision to extend its mandate and what effects such decision would has on the dialogue? Can the GNC accomplish anything positive? How do you imagine the role of the coming government?
Suliman Elbayoudi, independent participant in the dialogue, said that talks reached its final stage, there is nothing left but to
sign the agreement of announce failure; it is obvious that we are going back to the same square before the conflict starts. It is clear that we are heading towards military escalation in the presence of unity government or in case the agreement failed.
Concerning HoR decision to extent its mandate, Elbayoudi said the decision is “ill considered step, and reflects nothing but political tampering. when singing the agreement, HoR will become legislative body with limited authorities”.
He added that “ we should differentiate between blocks inside GNC and HoR. I think both bodies will impede the other; their role in the coming phase will be very limited. I can imagine escalation from those affected by the agrement from both sides directly after the declaration of the government”.
Elbayoudi said that the whole situation should be put to general assessment. With the current situation in Libya and substantial differences, the future of any agreement can’t be considered with satisfaction and acceptance without putting impediments in front of results.
Concerning the role of the coming government, Elbayoudi said that “ this government, if its meant to see the lights, would face many complications that could foil some of its programs, face terrorism and regional developments, and would be forced in engage difficult agreements under mutations of areas of influence”.
He added “ success of the government depends on the understating of alphabets of local complications, demographical and political changes after conflict, and here lies the importance of success of the government”.
He believes that the real bet is if the dialogue resulted in quota government that doesn’t depend on assessing local dimensions of Libyan crisis, then this government could fight terrorism with international alliance and deal with the complicated realities in Libya. Although this hazy scene, there are many hopes in the final draft of the political agreement, mostly important is the desire of moderate parties to get Libya out of its suffocating crisis. so possibilities of success will increase if the government creates real blend to deal with those who affected and afraid of the agreement.
Libyan artist and good observant of Libyan situation, Elhadi Elbakush said that talks will lead to government of international accord not local accord, because the price is to get each party its own piece of cake not out of fear for Libya, meaning that
agreement will be done when the carrot is divided, some will be afraid of the stick that would hit him as a result to the dialogue.
Concerning the decision of HoR to extend its mandate, Elbakush said “it is an attempt to moving forward to the back, and it is a result of GNC’s decision to extend for itself, which HoR firmly objected, and here the parliament repeated the same decision. And for record, those who promote for the extension are the ones who get nothing of the cake, we will see their names in the near future. Some will be opponents to HoR’s decisions or the coming government and its ministers claiming it is slow. We will see this group putting the stick into the wheel, some times in the name of revolution, other times in the name of division”.
When talking about the GNC, he said that it is already divided, their interests conflicted, divisions increased. We won’t see unified opinion as much as we will see different sayings based on interests and affiliations.
Elbakush said “the role of coming government depends on the coming character. Head of government should be strong, decisive, and fully understands the threads of international games which is more important”.
He added that the government is “government of international not national accord, meaning that its main responsibilities would be to stop illegal migration, protect oil fields, achieve security, make a list of outlaws, sign contracts or re-construction; while simple citizens will benefit of security which is his utmost ambition right now, specially after the arms chaos. Knowing that HoR extension is not legal as it got its legitimacy from electoral boxes, and any changes should be through the Box”.
Leader in Justice and Construction party, Abdulrazag Elaradi expects that the GNC to propose its list of candidates in the last minute, and added “I understated the statements of one member
in the GNC envoy Mohamed Alamary, positively as he confirmed that all amendments are considered and therefore requesting any more amendments would be understood as challenging the international community”.
Elaradi expressed his fear that GNC continues its strategy of absence, but this time its cost would be high it if didn’t retreats.
Concerning HoR decision, he said “ it doesn’t has any effect, but as a matter of maintaining it entity and its affiliates; according to my opinion based on constitutional court, the HoR is not existent, one result of the dialogue is to have parliament and state counsel, therefore HoR validity will be expired similar to what happened to GNC”.
Concerning GNC, he said that the positive thing required from GNC is to propose its list of candidates, contribute to the formation of government and sign the political draft.
He added “Libyan political dialogue specifies the priorities of government, I hope effective, un-argumentative characters would be chosen, as it is the only guarantee that could lead us to permanent constitution and get us out of this dangerous vortex that affects Libyan existence as unified entity”.
Activist Osama El-Gleab, speaking of mutual obstruction, and requires for amendments from GNC, and attempts of UN envoy Bernardino Leon to be patient till the last minute. Deadlines were
previously declared but bypassed to give utmost patient for the talks to succeed with minimum objections and differences. As it said, no agreement is perfect but it is the best regarding complicated circumstances the country is going through from lack of security, increase of terrorist groups, worsening economical statues and other problems that makes any delay increases suffering of citizens and divides the country.
El-Gleab said that “these are the last hours, realized by every one, in which extremists from both sides would try to foil the process putting the other side in the corner. But, Leon’s and its management ability with the international community and balanced Libyans still the scale who are trying to eliminate differences”.
About the government and its formation, he said “ it is too close, we could see the declaration of the government during the coming two days, but there will be return to the back, and if we returned to talks track from the beginning we would find many obstacles and problems, delegates are now more aware of how to overcome”.
He added “ challenges facing the coming government are big, it has massive pile of problems and files that need immediate long term solutions. It is important that the government has planes and programs, with real determination, to rise with the country during this stage, and solve all problems from illegal migration, return of displacements, restoring oil production, revive economy, find alternatives, development and turn to private economy instead of national”.
He pointed that the government came through international partnership, no doubt that managing standing files will have technical and logistical support for the government to succeeded with minimum damages and best results.
The added “ as much pain, next phase uncovered many illness the society is suffering from. First step in the cure is to allocate the illness , we knew ours and now we need true wills to cure them, with the perfect methods away from random temporary solutions”.
El-Gleab ended saying “ we expects the best, and that coming days would be pre-recovery phase, the starting point is consensus and forming unity government with sincere intention to find solution”.
Civil activist, Omar Elwahishi, saw that there is no alternative for the dialogue with the present situation which is heading
towards more bloodshed, terrorism, exhausting the economy, disintegration of social structure.
Concerning HoR decision, Elwahishi said “it is a foregone conclusion, expected, and an attempt to fill the disillusioned vacuum after its mandate expire, but it is a signal for non – contentment of HoR for the output of the dialogue”.
About the coming government, he said “we shouldn’t expect much from the government if it only manages to stop the multi- bloodshed in the country, and set the ground for legislative elections and referendum for the constitution, so it should be mini- government to manage the crisis, and not consensus extended one with multi missions and seats”.